Title picture: Cloudscapes, Stornoway, 1 February 2017

Friday, 2 September 2016

Indyref #2

The Scottish National Party announced on 19 September 2014 that the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum, held the previous day, would last for a generation. The outcome was no to independence.

They have gone back on their word. Once more, Scotland is being canvassed on how it would like to inspect the inside of a voting booth again. Most can probably draw it from memory. Including how they voted on 18.09.2014. The case for independence has become weaker, on account of the crash in oil revenue and the brexit referendum vote (to leave the EU). Do the people and the economy of Scotland want and need more uncertainty? Brexit will bring enough uncertainty in the next few years. And please do not be deluded by the Nationalists' claim that independence will return Scotland to the EU fold. It will not - Spain (mindful of its restive Catalonian separatism) will block that with 100% certainty, never mind how many countries the First Minister visits. Foreign affairs, by the way, are not a matter devolved to the Scottish Government, and therefore none of the FM's business. 

Over the 9 years that the SNP have been in power in Scotland, their gambles have backfired on them without fail. It is my rule of thumb with them, and it works well. Scotland's oil? Revenue of 1.8bn has fallen 97% to 0.06bn since 2014. The Arc of Prosperity, Iceland, Scotland and Ireland? Iceland's banks have crashed, and so has Ireland's economy. The banking crisis of 2008 needed a £32bn bail-out by the government in London, which would have blown a substantial hole in the Scottish GDP, which stood at around £175bn.

The current canvassing will show how eager the Scots are for yet another plebiscite on independence. The result will, whatever the outcome, be that they want it.

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