Wednesday, 2 March 2016
My preliminary assessment of the US presidential race is that it will go between Clinton and Trump. And of the two, Trump is the one most likely to win. I don't like Donald Trump, politically or otherwise. However, in the current international climate, it could well be that we need a character like him at the helm of the USA. Only someone like him can stand up to Putin, Assad, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping and other leaders whose intentions are rather insular, shall we say. Why? Because Trump is about as insular and hard-nosed as you get, in addition to being a flicking nutcase.
Russia and Syria fomenting Europe's troubles. Russia threatening WW3 if Turkey invades Syria on the ground - i.e., Syria is VERY important to Putin's gameplan for making Europe his backyard. For he will then claim, in a couple of years from now, that only Russia can take proper care of Europe. Awful truth is, a lot of the Middle East rubbish goes back to the Spheres of Influence policies of the Cold War era, in which both America and the USSR indulged. Latterly, it has been America's badly judged involvement with Iraq which let the cat out of the bag, creating a power vacuum in a region that can only be ruled by odious strongmen, democracy being an alien concept in the Middle East. This power vacuum was taken advantage of by Al Qa'eda, later by Daesh. The latter is being bombed into submission, but their presence has been seized with both hands and both feet by the Moscow regime of Vladimir Putin to really back the uprising against Assad of Syria. David Cameron was all for bombing Assad, but was reigned in 3 years ago. I am not in favour of getting militarily involved in the Middle East at all, but for strategic reasons (oil) we seem to have to. Four hundred people have drowned in the Mediterranean Sea. Eleven million have been driven to flight. Just to keep Bashir al-Assad in power? Putin tried it on in Ukraine, but found that militarily he didn't really get anywhere. But subversion is much more subtle, and in the long run, likely to have a greater likelihood of success. Again, the only language that Putin understands is that of power. We'll have to be strong against his odious little plans.