The Turk and the Czar - continued

This is an extension to a post I first wrote on The Shell Gallery blog 6 days ago. 

Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan. A dangerous mix, which puts Europe in mortal danger. On April 16th, the Turks will vote in a referendum to afford the Turkish presidents sweeping powers which would turn his presidency into an autocracy. Erdogan is pulling out all the stops to get the diaspora to vote as well, some 5 million strong. His ministers are travelling the length and breadth of Europe - and we saw what happened in Rotterdam. It was thoroughly disconcerting to see the mass of flag-waving Turks in the city, turning to rioting when their minister was sent away. And some militants claiming that the city of Rotterdam will soon be theirs.

It has been suggested that Erdogan wishes to reinstate the Caliphate, which ruled Turkey until 1924. He could just as easily wish to reinstate the Ottoman Empire, which (at one point) reached as far as Vienna in the 17th century. What does that remind you of?

Vladimir Putin. He wishes to reinstate the Russian Federation to within the borders of the old USSR, abolished in 1991. He also wishes to extend his sway to the whole of Europe, made easier by US president Donald Trump. He is not too bothered about Europe, and Putin knows that.

If Erdogan gets his new powers, he could just as easily foment trouble in the Turkish communities in Europe, setting off civil unrest if not worse. Erdogan could cancel the migrant deal, that has stopped the flow of migrants from Syria and other places across the Aegean Sea into Greece and the EU. Hundreds of thousands would come across, causing further instability in Europe. And, with Donald Trump not really minding what happens in Europe, Vladimir Putin could march in to restore stability on Russia's borders. In Ukraine. In Poland. In Germany. In Holland. In the United Kingdom, where Brexit will loosen the ties to continental Europe, where Sturgeon's Scotland seeks to secede.

Why does Putin have this chance, you may well ask. Because after the abortive coup in Ankara in July last year, Western leaders were very reluctant to congratulate him. The Dutch foreign ministerwas actually among the first to call his Turkish counterpart at the time. So, Putin saw his chance. It is often argued that Turkey has so much to lose in a conflict with Europe. Erdogan may calculate that he has more to gain through being Putin's puppet than through being in NATO or friendly with the EU.

There is one other angle on this. If there is conflict between Europe and Turkey, this also means a schism in the NATO alliance. Should this really come to pass, then Putin will have achieved his aims. We should be very worried - if Erdogan gets the majority of Turks to vote Evet. Yes.

The Turk and the Czar

You'll remember that Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan survived a military coup recently. Who was the first to ring him up afterwards? Vladimir Putin.

Turkey is a member of NATO. Its president, the aforementioned Mr Erdoğan, is looked at by the Americans askance. However, he is a key ally in the fight against Da'esh (you know, so-called Islamic State) and buffer against the horrors that lurk within the Middle East. Really and truly, the Americans should have been in there first to congratulate Erdoğan on his survival.

Same applies to the Europeans. For decades, they have rejected Turkish aspirations to the join the European Union. However, they needed Turkey to stop the flow of migrants and refugees and should have been a little more amicable to their eastern neighbour when he emerged from dire straits.


At the end of the day, Erdoğan is not a pleasant fellow, from our perspective. He is an autocrat, suppresses dissent and has for years sought to draw power onto himself. From his perspective however, he feels let down by his friends. The Europeans have been ungrateful for his acquiescence in the matter of the refugees, and so have the Americans. Putin spotted and immediately seized the opportunity, realising that Erdoğan was not flavour of the month in either Brussels or Washington. And he would love nothing less than to take Turkey out of European (and better still NATO) spheres and into his.

Erdoğan and Putin had a major falling out last year, when the Turks downed a Russian fighter jet over the Syrian border. But now it's kiss and make up time.

I don't think either Brussels or Washington have been canny in their dealings with the Turkish president. Whilst disliking him, and I totally understand why, they could have exercised some political expediency to keep him on board.

I do not expect Erdoğan to fall for Putin any time soon. But this is a strong warning, an amber signal, to the Americans and Europeans.

Beware.