Along the Pentland Road, 25 May 2017

Tuesday, 23 October 2012

Hurricane update - 23 October

Tropical storm Sandy formed yesterday and is now moving north towards Jamaica. At present, the system is still 260 miles to the south of that Caribbean island, but will reach it tomorrow at hurricane force, with winds in excess of 75 mph. After traversing Jamaica, it will be the turn of eastern Cuba, parts of which are (with Jamaica) on a hurricane warning. Sandy will then move over the Bahamas, which will see the storm below hurricane force, but there is not much difference between winds of 70 and 60 knots.

Tropical depression 24W (locally named Ofel) has formed to the southeast of Manila in the Philippines. The system will reach tropical storm strength as it passes just north of Mindanao, through the Visayas and past southern Luzon. Although the winds do not appear to be much of a problem, rain will be. The mountainous terrain of the Philippine islands tends to lead to flash floods and mud slides which are life-threatening.

Somalia should be keeping an eye on a tropical disturbance (95B) which is slipping across the Arabian Sea from southern India and has a high (> 50%) likelihood of becoming a tropical cyclone. If it does, it is likely to die a death over Cape Guardafui (also known as the Horn of Africa) which is a desert area. Like in the adjacent Arabian peninsula, tropical cyclones tend to be welcome in northeast Africa for the rain they bring. 

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